When an election is this close, patience — and math — will decide the winner

Election night came and went, and we still don’t know who our next town supervisor will be. Challenger Jerry Halpin leads incumbent Tim Hubbard by just 21 votes out of 7,761 cast — less than three-tenths of one percent. It’s so close that no one’s declaring victory and no one’s conceding defeat.

So, what happens now? A slow, careful process laid out in New York’s election law — and a little math that shows just how steep a hill the incumbent has to climb to overcome that 21-vote deficit.

Votes left to count — and a mandatory “recanvass”

The totals reported on election night include votes cast in person, both during early voting and on Election Day. But they don’t include absentee ballots received after Election Day, affidavit ballots, or military ballots received by the Suffolk County Board of Elections after Election Day.

Absentee ballots are familiar: voters who were away, sick, or otherwise unable to get to the polls could mail or drop off a ballot. Under state law, absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive and still be counted for seven days afterward — this year, until Nov. 12.

Affidavit ballots are less well understood. You fill one out when there’s a question about your eligibility — maybe your name isn’t in the poll book, you moved recently, or there’s a mix-up with your registration. After the election, officials verify each voter’s eligibility. If you’re properly registered and voted in the right place, your ballot is opened and counted. If not, it’s rejected.

Military ballots fall under a separate category. They’re mailed to service members and can arrive even later — as long as they were sent by Election Day, they’re valid if received within 13 days. That makes Nov. 17 the last day this year for military ballots to reach the BOE.

What happens next

In Suffolk County, the BOE’s bipartisan central board of canvassers — equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans — will verify every signature, postmark, and registration record. Challenges from either campaign can delay things if there are disputes, but most years, those get sorted out within a week or two.

Because absentee and military ballots can still arrive after Election Day, the sealed envelopes are held until those deadlines pass. Typically, once the final date for military ballots has come and gone (Nov. 17 this year), the board will open and count all valid absentee, military, and affidavit ballots.

Only after every valid ballot is counted and any objections resolved can the board certify the results.

Recanvass vs. recount

Under New York Election Law, all elections go through a mandatory recanvass conducted by bipartisan teams at the county board. They recheck every machine, scanner, and tabulator to ensure numbers were reported correctly and all ballots — absentee, affidavit, military, and emergency — are included. It’s not a recount of paper ballots, but a mechanical and procedural verification.

When the margin of victory is 20 votes or less or 0.5% of the total votes cast (whichever is greater), state law requires an automatic hand recount — a manual recheck of every ballot.

With 7,761 votes cast, 0.5% equals about 39 votes. Because the current margin is just 21, the Riverhead supervisor’s race meets that threshold. After the hand recount is completed, the results can be certified — and that’s when we’ll officially know who won.

The numbers game

Now for the part that fascinates political junkies — and plenty of ordinary Riverhead residents this week: just how possible is it for Hubbard to close that 21-vote gap?

First, how many valid absentee, military, and affidavit ballots will be counted? The Board of Elections hasn’t responded to my request for outstanding ballot numbers in this race, but I’ve confirmed through both Republican and Democratic town and county committee sources that, as of Friday afternoon, there were 23 affidavit ballots and 70 absentee ballots in the BOE’s possession. No one gave me a count yet for military ballots. Party officials don’t expect the absentee ballot numbers to rise much before Tuesday’s deadline — one described the arrivals at this point as a “trickle.” 

All ballots are sealed in envelopes, and while officials know each voter’s party registration, no one knows how they voted — not yet.

If all 93 absentee and affidavit ballots are deemed valid, here’s the enrollment breakdown reportedly in the BOE’s hands:

• 44 from registered Democrats
• 24 from Republicans and Conservatives
• 22 from unaffiliated (“blank”) voters
• 3 from minor parties (“other”)

If Hubbard wins all 24 Republican and Conservative votes, he’d still need every blank and “other” ballot (25 in all) and at least 9 Democratic ballots to overcome Halpin’s lead — assuming the rest of the Democrats vote for Halpin.

That would mean one in five Democratic voters crossing party lines — not impossible, but highly unlikely in a town race this polarized. In any realistic scenario, Halpin’s lead grows when the absentees and affidavits are counted, not shrinks.

That’s why it’s fair to say the challenger remains the heavy favorite, even without anyone declaring victory yet. The process — not the politicians — will settle it.

Democracy takes its time

If you’re wondering why it all seems to move so slowly, there’s a good reason. The system is built to protect every vote — especially in a close race. Each absentee or affidavit envelope is verified by both parties, and every questionable ballot can be challenged before it’s added to the tally. 

It’s a safe bet that Hubbard will do everything possible to challenge the paper ballots from Democratic voters in the hope of reducing any gains by Halpin when paper ballots are counted. 

This will all take place at the Suffolk County Board of Elections offices in Yaphank.

It’s  painstaking process that takes time. In an election decided by 21 votes, it’s worth it.

So, no, we don’t have a new town supervisor yet. But we will — as soon as the Board of Elections finishes its careful work. The voters have spoken; now the counters are making sure every one of those voices is heard.

When the dust settles, Riverhead will have a clear, legitimate winner — and the rest of us will have been reminded that democracy isn’t a sprint.

It’s a careful count.