Arthur’s track will make for a soggy Fourth on the East End

Riverhead will likely see soggy skies for July 4th, with most of the day a washout due to Hurricane Arthur, according to the National Weather Service.

According to Lauren Nash, meteorologist at the NWS office in Upton, a slow-moving cold front is expected through the area, beginning on Thursday through Friday night, as Arthur recurves.

Tropical moisture interacting with the cold front will increase the threat for heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday.

“Unfortunately, as for Fourth of July plans, the East End of Long Island will be pretty wet,” Nash said, with a 60 to 70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms up until 8 p.m. on Friday.

Riverhead Town Supervisor Sean Walter said while forecast models are predicting a near-miss for the East End, residents should not let their guard down.

“Arthur is a good reminder that we are in hurricane season…so remember the three Ps of preparedness: plan, pack and pay attention,” he said.

The weather service also says the rip current risk will be high during the beginning of the July 4 holiday weekend based on the track of the system, with high surf and rough ocean inlet/entrance conditions likely as well, according to the NWS. Mariners should not venture far from port.

“The East End will be the last to clear out,” with rain turning to cloudy skies after midnight on Friday, Nash said.

The good news is that Saturday will be clear and sunny, she said, with highs in the lower 80s, and similar conditions for Sunday.

Rain is expected to begin on the North Fork late this afternoon by about 6 p.m., according to the weather service..

While there are no flash flood warnings issued as of now, Nash said she wouldn’t rule out ponding and flooding in low-lying areas.

According to the NWS, potential for flash flooding and thunderstorms exist across western Long Island, the New York City metro area, New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut on Thursday.