New York may finally be on the downward slope of the coronavirus outbreak: Cuomo

Key indicators show that New York State’s coronavirus outbreak may be waning, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said today.

Data on hospitalizations, ventilated patients and deaths seemed to plateau at a high level over the past week or so. But the numbers have begun trending downward.

“If you look at the past three days, you could argue that we are past the plateau and we’re starting to descend, which would be very good news,” the governor said, as he reviewed data during his daily media briefing in Albany.

Total hospitalizations, ICU admissions, intubations and deaths all declined yesterday. The number of COVID fatalities reported yesterday was 540 — 504 people died in hospitals and 36 people died in nursing homes, the governor said. The new fatalities bring the state’s death toll to 12,732.

New hospitalizations, however, remain steady at about 2,000 per day, Cuomo said, noting that is about the same level as late March.

“We’re not seeing a total overload of the emergency rooms, but that doesn’t mean happy days are here again,” Cuomo said.

The governor again stressed the need for increased, rapid-result testing in order to safely reopen the economy.

“You have a very tight window,” he said, explaining that epidemiologists look at infection rates in terms of how many people someone with the virus will infect. Cuomo said before the state mandated school and business closures and social distancing measures last month, one infected person was infecting 1.4 other people.

“That’s where you have a widespread epidemic,” Cuomo said.

Today the ratio is 1 to .9 — because of the “NY on Pause” measures, he said.

As these measures are relaxed and the economy is opened up, the ratio has to be closely monitored to make sure the virus remains under control, Cuomo said.

“You can only go to 1.2 before you see those hospitalizations go back up,” he said.

Without much more rapid-result testing, the state can’t accurately “calibrate” the way it “opens the valve,” risking a resurgence of the pandemic.

“Testing still of a fraction of what we need,” the governor said.

He said in order for the state’s 300 or so private laboratories to ramp up testing, they need the chemicals, known as reagents, required to do the tests.

“Most of them say they can’t get the re-agents,” he said.

The distributers of the re-agents — the manufacturers of the lab testing equipment — told the state either they can’t the chemicals, which are produced outside the U.S. or that the federal government directs where the chemicals get distributed, Cuomo said.

“We need help with that international supply chain and we need basic partnership with the federal government,” the governor said.

He thanked the federal government for sending 1.5 million cloth mask to distribute to New Yorkers to help people to comply with the rule that took effect last night requiring everyone over age 2 to wear a mask or face covering when in public.

But Cuomo also reiterated the bipartisan call from the National Governors Association for the federal government to provide $500 billion in unrestricted aid to the states to help stabilize the economy and allow the states to perform reopening functions. The federal government has passed three bills to address this crisis, including the federal CARES Act, all of which contained zero funding to offset drastic state revenue shortfalls, the governor said.

“States need federal funding in order to reopen,” he said.

“We’re not ready to open yet, but we are in the planning phase.”