A coastal flood advisory has been issued for Friday night into Sunday morning for the north shore of Suffolk and Nassau County as Hurricane Lee passes about 250-300 miles east of Montauk, the National Weather Service said this afternoon.
Lee, currently packing winds of 85 mph as it churns in the Atlantic about 200 miles west of Bermuda, is forecast to track north toward the U.S. Canada border. The center of the hurricane is expected to be near or over Nova Scotia late Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm’s wind field is expected to expand as Lee moves northward, but overall the general trend is for the strongest winds and any precipitation to remain to the east of Long Island, the National Weather Service in Upton said in a statement this afternoon.
North-northwest winds will increase Friday night with potential for 25-30 mph for much of the area east of the Hudson River, forecasters said. These winds should continue into Saturday, but should slowly weaken towards evening, according to the statement. The East End of Long Island could still see a few gusts 35-40 mph, but this could end up more occasional or limited in coverage, the weather service said.
Minor flooding is likely in the most vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline of the north shore of the Island, the weather service said in an advisory. Flooding from storm surge is expected from 7 p.m. Friday to 5 a.m. Sunday at times of high tide.
“As much as 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level is possible, which will cause shallow flooding on some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront,” the weather service advisory said.
Breaking waves of 3 to 5 feet will result in beach erosion, with minor damage possible to dune structures. This will locally exacerbate shoreline flooding, particularly in more exposed areas such as Orient Point, the weather service said.
There is still uncertainty in the timing of peak surge relative to the times of high tide Friday night into Saturday, forecasters said. Lee is expected to transition to an extra-tropical storm by then. “For this reason, this coastal flood forecast represents a reasonable worst case forecast, to include a safety margin for preparation,” the weather service said in the advisory.
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