Above-normal hurricane activity forecast for 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins Sunday

(Updated June 1) Sunday marks the beginning of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30. 

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. 

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA said it has a 70% confidence in these ranges. 

The 2025 season is expected to be above-normal “due to a confluence of factors,” NOAA said in a press release. These include warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon— a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes— and continued ENSO-neutral conditions. ENSO-neutral conditions mean that sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns are near average in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and neither El Niño nor La Niña dominates.

All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation, NOAA said.

“High-heat content” and reduced trade winds combine to allow Atlantic storms to develop without disruption, according to the forecast. 

This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms, NOAA said.

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in the press release. 

“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared,” Graham said. “Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

Preparation takes planning

“Suffolk County is more vulnerable now more than ever to natural disasters and severe weather,” Suffolk County Executive Ed Romaine said in a press release. “With hurricane season upon us, we are taking the necessary precautions with our nearby jurisdictions and community partners to ensure we are prepared for the next big storm. I encourage all our residents to be ready alongside us by staying informed and being ready.”

The American Red Cross advises residents to make plans to both evacuate and shelter safely at home. 

The evacuation plan should include knowing where to go, how to get there, and where to stay. The shelter-in-place plan should focus on gathering the right supplies to live safely without power, water, gas, phone or internet for several days, the Red Cross said. Think about what you might need during and after an emergency, such as copies of important documents and lists of medications. Visit redcross.org/prepare for tips and suggestions on how to get ready for an emergency.

Sign up for free local government emergency alerts, which will include important information such as evacuation orders in an emergency. For information on the American Red Cross on Long Island, visit www.redcross.org/li http://www.redcross.org/li.

Utility providers in the region say they are prepared to respond to hurricanes and have worked to harden their infrastructure and improve resiliency.

“PSEG Long Island spends all year preparing for severe weather, including hurricanes. Since 2014, we have storm hardened more than 1,400 miles of distribution lines, tree trimmed more than 29,000 miles of circuits, and become the most reliable overhead electric service provider in New York State,” PSEG Long Island’s Vice President of Customer Operations Lou DeBrino said in a statement. “Every year, our employees take part in numerous storm drills and exercises to ensure their readiness, and we proudly partner with the Red Cross on Long Island to help the people in our communities prepare for hurricanes. The time to make a plan is now, before a storm is headed our way.”

“National Grid is prepared to weather any storms,” National Grid Ventures US CEO Jim Flannery said in a statement. “Every year at the start of hurricane season, we make sure our Gas and Generation teams are prepared for any scenario,” he said. “That includes thorough testing of our equipment in the field to help minimize the impact of any weather event. We conduct drills with our local stakeholders to make sure lines of communication are clear and to mitigate risk,” Flannery said.

Emergency preparedness officials are concerned that residents and businesses don’t take the threat seriously enough because it’s been decades since a major hurricane made landfall on Long Island.

The vast majority of Long Island residents have not experienced a major hurricane, making much of the population complacent about the potential dangers of a direct hit.

Hurricane Gloria made landfall on L.I. 40 years ago

It’s been 40 years since a hurricane made landfall on Long Island: Hurricane Gloria moved across central Long Island on Sept. 27, 1985. 

Hurricane Gloria was a powerful Cape Verde hurricane that formed on Sept. 15, 1985 and tracked across the Atlantic through Sept. 28. Gloria reached Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale near the Bahamas, but weakened significantly by the time it made landfall on the Outer Banks, according to the National Weather Service. Gloria closely followed the Mid-Atlantic coastline and made a second landfall on Long Island, and, after crossing the Long Island Sound, it made a third landfall in Connecticut.

Overall, the storm caused extensive damage along the East Coast of the United States, amounting to $900 million [1985 USD], and was responsible for eight fatalities, according to a National Weather Service Hurricane Gloria event review. The storm was the first significant system to strike the northeastern United States since Hurricane Agnes in 1972 and the first major storm to affect New York and Long Island directly since Hurricane Donna in 1960. Read more on the National Weather Service website.

The storm was weakened by its first landfall on the Outer Banks in North Caroline. The colder waters of the Mid-Atlantic prevented it from regaining strength as it churned toward the northeast, picking up forward speed as it moved across Long Island and into Connecticut. Still, it toppled trees, tore off roofs and caused major damage. More than two-thirds of Long Island Lighting Company’s customers were left without power in the wake of Gloria, and significant damage to the power grid and infrastructure meant many customers remained without power for up to two weeks.