A winter storm watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for possible heavy snow in eastern Suffolk from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.
Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible with northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 40 to 50 mph.
The weather service says a coastal low is expected to develop tomorrow and track toward or just east of the “benchmark,” a point about 100 miles southeast of Montauk Point marked by the coordinates 40 North and 70 West. Most major east coast snowstorms pass over or near the 40/70 benchmark as they move north-northeast.
Precipitation will begin as snow or a rain/snow mix either late tomorrow afternoon or early
evening, according to the weather service. A transition to all snow will occur as the low deepens and tracks northeast toward the benchmark.
The steadiest and heaviest snow will likely be overnight Monday night into early Tuesday. “Snowfall rates of two to three inches per hour are quite possible over eastern sections, based on latest frontogenesis and likely banding,” according to the NWS forecast discussion.
“Assuming the track and intensity forecast is correct, a 970 hPa
low near or just east of the benchmark, would expect heaviest snow and highest accumulations to be placed along the coast,
east of NYC,” NWS forecasters said.
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