A National Hurricane Center graphic shows the potential track of a storm system tomorrow night into Saturday morning. There is a chance of at least 80% the system will develop into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone. Graphic: National Hurricane Center

A tropical system could bring heavy rain and winds to Long Island and the metro area this weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

A low pressure system off the coast of North Carolina is more than 80% likely to develop into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone by this weekend, when it is expected to pass near or across Long Island, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

The storm is likely to bring flooding rains tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning, even if it doesn’t organize into a tropical system, according to National Weather Service forecasters at Upton.

Determining which areas receive the heaviest rainfall will depend on the track of the low pressure system, according to forecasters. Models are currently in disagreement over whether the low will track west of Long Island into New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, or if it will pass directly over Long Island and into Connecticut.

In either scenario, heavy rainfall is expected tomorrow night along with the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms and high wind gusts.

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Katie, winner of the 2016 James Murphy Cub Reporter of the Year award from the L.I. Press Club, is a co-publisher of RiverheadLOCAL. A Riverhead native, she is a 2014 graduate of Stony Brook University. Email Katie