Today marks the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season and forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say there’s a 60% chance of another above-normal season. The forecast predicts 13-20 named storms — those packing winds of 39 mph or greater — six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
Experts do not, however, anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.
“Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” acting NOAA administrator Ben Friedman.
Long Island, protruding as it does off the eastern seaboard, lies in the path of Atlantic hurricanes traveling up the coast and seems a ready target for tropical cyclones that make their way into the North Atlantic. While Long Island communities have been battered by winds and the drenching rains of tropical storms — and were impacted mightily by the historic Super Storm Sandy in late October 2012, a tropical storm when it reached New York — a hurricane has not made landfall here since Hurricane Gloria in 1985.
Hurricane Gloria, a Category 4 hurricane when it made its first landfall in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, was a Category 2 hurricane when it made its second landfall on Long Island on Sept. 27, 1985. Packing gusts of up to 115 mph across eastern Long Island, it ripped off roofs, toppled trees and power lines and left three-quarters of a million people without power, some for nearly two weeks. The storm surge destroyed 48 homes on Long Island. Gloria caused widespread crop damage estimated at about $20 million.
Other hurricanes that made landfall in the last century were: Belle on Aug. 11, 1976 (Category 1), Donna on Sept. 11, 1950, the “Great Atlantic Hurricane” on Sept. 14, 1944 and the infamous “Long Island Express” on Sept. 21, 1938, a devastating Category 3 storm that caused 60 deaths and hundreds of injuries in New York and more than 682 across New England, destroying more than 57,000 homes.
Based on historical data since 1878, there’s an average probability of 8% of a hurricane making landfall in Suffolk County and a 2% chance of a major hurricane making landfall here, according to tropical weather and climate researchers at Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. The odds are somewhat higher for 2021, with a 12% chance of hurricane impact and a 4% chance of major hurricane impact in Suffolk.
The 2021 Atlantic tropical cyclone names designated by the World Meteorological Organization are:
FEMA: Prepare in advance
The Federal Emergency Management Agency urges everyone to make preparations in advance of a storm’s approach.
The agency says all residents should have an emergency plan and make sure everyone in their household knows and understands it.
FEMA recommends discussing these questions with your household members:
- How will I receive emergency alerts and warnings?
- What is my shelter plan?
- What is my evacuation route?
- What is my family/household communication plan?
- Do I need to update my emergency preparedness kit?
FEMA has created an emergency plan guide the includes a form to fill out with essential information and phone numbers. Download the emergency plan guide here.
Download additional preparedness materials here.
For more information and guidance about hurricane preparedness, visit Ready.gov.
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