Where’s the snow? Very few flakes have fallen in the local area this January and an Alberta Clipper system forecast to drop about an inch of snow here may scoot past us, leaving the East End high and dry.
There’s still a “slight chance” of light snow this morning however, according to the National Weather Service forecast, but meteorologists are more focused on what’s headed this way on Saturday.
“All attention is focused on a rapidly deepening low that emerges from the eastern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and rapidly tracks up the eastern seaboard Saturday, passing near the 40N 70W benchmark,” according to the National Weather Service forecast discussion.
The current forecast is for “moderate” accumulation of two to five inches of snow and some ice accretion up to a tenth of an inch.
“The forecast models at this point in time are in relatively decent agreement with the rapid intensification and track of the storm,” the weather service says, despite “subtle differences in timing and track.”
Forecasters are uncertain whether there will be a cold air mass in place to produce an all-snow event.
“There is no high in place to the north which is often the most critical element to maintain a cold air supply for a nor’easter,” the weather service says. But other factors, including a strong northerly flow will provide an airmass supportive of primarily snow or a wintry mix of rain, snow and freezing rain, according to the forecast discussion.
“This makes for a challenging forecast with respect to storm totals… Much of the tri-state area should see a strong advisory level event with 2 to 5 inches of snow and some ice accretion up to a tenth of an inch. Should the event stay all snow, then eastern areas could see a warning level event.”
For now, the National Weather Service in Upton has issued a revised hazardous weather outlook and is forecasting snow Saturday morning, changing over to a mix of rain and snow in the afternoon, with “moderate snow accumulation.” Forecast highs are in the mid-30s with winds increasing from the north to 20 mph. A 50 chance of snow, rain and freezing rain will continue through Saturday evening, which will be windy with lows in the upper 20s.
January ‘15 may yet pack one more punch: “There is the potential for another strong coastal low along the mid-Atlantic coast Monday as a strong Clipper low approaches the region,” NWS forecasters said this morning.
After that, dry conditions should return from mid-week to week’s — and month’s — end.
On the bright side, there’s only 57 more days of winter. Spring officially arrives March 20 at 6:46 p.m.
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