A redrawn NY-01 would have solid Democratic majority under new map before state lawmakers

A new proposal for congressional redistricting in front of the New York State Legislature would change the voting pattern of New York’s First Congressional District from a Republican-leaning swing district, to one that has a solid Democratic majority.

If adopted, the proposal would redraw the boundaries of NY-01 — the district that currently encompasses the five East End towns, almost all of Brookhaven and eastern Smithtown, and which is currently represented by Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin of Shirley. The reconfigured district would exclude the southwestern part of Southampton, the southern half of Brookhaven and parts of Smithtown. It would instead extend through northwestern Babylon, south Huntington and into the eastern part of the Town of Oyster bay in Nassau County, cutting through what is currently NY-02 and NY-03. 

The new proposal was released Sunday night by the New York State Legislative Task Force on Demographic Research and Reapportionment, which is made up of four members appointed by Democratic leaders and two appointed by Republican leaders, after the bipartisan New York State Independent Redistricting Commission failed to agree on a new statewide map.

The proposed map heavily favors Democrats in New York’s congressional districts. Democrats would gain three seats and Republicans would lose four seats, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

State legislators are expected to act on the proposed map this week, likely as soon as Wednesday.

The proposal for NY-01, depicted above, makes the district less compact and has it snaking across Suffolk, sharing two counties, seven towns and four village governments with other congressional districts. The plan also makes the district less diverse, bringing its population of ethnic and racial minorities down from 45% to around 30%.

It changes NY-01’s political leanings from a district that voted 52.1% to 47.9% in favor of former-President Donald Trump in the 2020 election, to one that would have voted 55.5% to 44.5% in favor of President Biden, according to Redistricting and You: New York, an online map created by researchers at the Center for Urban Research at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. 

The plan would also extend NY-02 east into the southern half of Brookhaven and the western part of Southampton, bringing Quoque and Westhampton into NY-02, but leaving Riverside in NY-01. New York’s Third Congressional District would gain part of Smithtown and also be expanded westward to encompass a sliver of eastern Westchester across the Long Island Sound. NY-04 remains largely unchanged.

Reapportionment is a political process that takes place every 10 years after the decennial census to redraw election districts based on population changes. Battles over reapportionment can often result in “gerrymandering,” where the party in power uses the redrawing of the boundaries to tighten their control on state and federal elections. 

The census population decides how many of the 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives will get elected per state. In the 2020 census, New York, though its population grew since 2010, did not record a population growth proportional to other states in the country, causing it to lose one of its 27 seats in congress in this upcoming election. 

Overall, seven seats in the House are being reshuffled, with Republican-leaning states, including Texas and Florida, gaining the most seats. Democratic-controlled states counted a net loss of two seats, while Republican-controlled states saw a net gain of three seats in the reapportionment process, according to the Brookings Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based public policy research organization. There was a net loss of one seat in swing states. 

In New York, the proposed reapportionment would give Democrats an advantage in trying to flip NY-01 blue in November’s midterm elections — a result that would mitigate the overall loss of seats and political power in the narrowly controlled House of Representatives.  With incumbent Zeldin running for governor — and having emerged as the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee — Democrats are eyeing the opportunity of an open seat.

Democratic county legislators Bridget Fleming of Noyac and Kara Hahn of Setauket are vying for their party’s nomination in the First Congressional District this year. Both tweeted positively about the plan. 

She called the proposed new district lines, “great news” and said NY-01 “is going to be one of the best pick-up opportunities in the country.”

Hahn issued a similar tweet. She called the NY-01 “one of the best opportunities in the country to flip a battleground seat from red to blue.”

Robert Cornicelli, a Republican candidate for NY-01, tweeted that the “exceptional Dem pickup opportunity” cited by Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman “Won’t happen.”

Zeldin said in a statement to RiverheadLOCAL he opposes the task force’s redistricting plan.

“As a State Senator, I proudly voted for a constitutional amendment to create the independent redistricting commission,” Zeldin said. “Sadly, Democrats in the legislature have hijacked the redistricting process, ignoring the will of the voters and undermining the ability of the constitutionally required independent commission to create a congressional map that best serves New Yorkers,” Zeldin said. “This is just the latest in a long line of power grabs by Albany Democrats that has been enabled by one-party rule in our state.”

Gov. Kathy Hochul has not yet publicly commented on the task force proposal.

Jesse Garcia, the chairman of the Suffolk County GOP, said the plan is a last ditch effort for Democrats to hold power in the state after the 2021 election, where several local races, including on Long Island, flipped Republican.

“No matter how Albany progressive Democrats and their partners try to gerrymander districts, their failed policies — cashless bail, critical race theory in our education system, destroying our local downtown economies — those every day failed policies are what will fuel our campaigns to overcome this challenge as well,” Garcia said.

Garcia said the party is currently discussing four potential candidates to run for Zeldin’s open seat. ”We’re going to be fully prepared, despite every challenge that the Democrats put up, to field and maintain that seat,” he said.

Each state has its own process to decide how maps are drawn. New Yorkers passed a constitutional amendment in 2014 to create the Independent Redistricting Commission, an equally bipartisan body, to make the process open and independent from the state legislature. The commission could not agree on a single map during their process, and instead sent legislators two separate maps for New York’s Assembly, State Senate and Congressional districts.

New York legislators are not alone in arguing about redistricting. State lawmakers are in disputes on proposals around the country — introduced by both Democrats and Republicans — resulting in several lawsuits alleging things from unfair political advantages to racial discrimination.